IonQ's quantum computers could break Bitcoin in less than a month

The latest research from IonQ provides precise calculations of the vulnerability of public key cryptography. The secp256k1 standard, which is based on elliptic curves and is used to verify digital signatures and authenticate transactions in the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, could be completely broken in just under 26 days. To achieve this feat, the IonQ quantum system would need 19,397 physical and 1,457 logical qubits.

The special thing about this analysis is that it is not a guess, but a precise calculation based on the actual hardware and software capabilities and architecture of IonQ. The calculations take into account the physical movements of the ions, time delays, system errors and optimization of command steps. The researchers have proven that their software algorithm consists of 674 steps, which is only 5 steps more than the theoretical minimum.

The successful cracking of the secp256k1 encryption standard poses more than just a threat to unauthorized disposal of funds from digital wallets. The same mathematical principles are used by many systems to authenticate documents, protect communications, and verify system drivers. IonQ estimates that it will achieve such capabilities in its laboratories by 2028. These findings have already prompted US authorities and partner companies to accelerate the implementation of post-quantum encryption standards.

IonQ CEO Niccolò de Masi points out that the timeframe for the so-called “Q-Day,” the moment when quantum computers will surpass classical protection, has moved from 2030 to the current decade. IonQ plans to build a fault-tolerant 10,000-qubit system by 2027, confirming the urgency of updating security protocols immediately.