Will AI slow down hiring?

Svetovni gospodarski forum v svoji najnovejši raziskavi “Future of Jobs” disrupcijo pričakuje za približno 23 % delovnih mest. Seveda to ne pomeni, da bodo vsa ta delovna mesta izginila, nekatera bodo odpravljena, druga pa se bodo pojavila na novo. Bistveno je, da Svetovni gospodarski forum pričakuje, da bo v petih letih skupno 14 milijonov delovnih mest manj, saj bo po njihovih ocenah izginilo 83 milijonov delovnih mest, pojavilo pa se jih bo le 69 milijonov.

“In general, the rate of change is quite high,” je za CNBC povedala Saadia Zahidi, Director General at the World Economic Forum. The report's findings are largely based on a survey of 803 companies employing a total of 11.3 million workers in 45 different economies around the world.

According to the WEF, the disruptions mentioned above will be influenced by many factors, from technological developments such as artificial intelligence to climate change.

Zaskrbljenost glede tehnoloških sprememb, ki negativno vplivajo na delovna mesta, narašča, zlasti odkar je generativna umetna inteligenca, predvsem tukaj ciljamo na orodja, kot je ChatGPT, vstopila v splošno javnost. Raziskava “Future of Jobs” je pokazala, da je tehnologija eden glavnih dejavnikov, ko govorimo o izgube služb.

“Največji rezi se pričakujejo v administrativnih vlogah ter v tradicionalnih varnostnih, tovarniških in prodajnih vlogah,” je zapisano v poročilu, pri čemer je obrazloženo, da bo upad zlasti administrativnih vlog “v glavnem posledica digitalizacije in avtomatizacije.”

However, the surveyed companies generally do not see technological changes as negative.

“We expect the impact of most technologies on jobs to be net positive over the next five years. Among the biggest drivers of job growth will be data analytics, climate change and technologies related to environmental management. In addition, encryption and cyber security,” so zapisali v poročilu.

Nekateri sektorji, v katerih bi lahko nastalo največ novih delovnih mest povezanih s tehnologijo, so izobraževanje, kmetijstvo in zdravstvo, je pojasnila Zahidi. “This is not happening because these are dangerous, low-paid and low-skilled jobs all over the world. These are highly skilled jobs with a higher dogiven the value enabled by technology," she said.

Umetna inteligenca je v poročilu opisana kot “ključno gonilo potencialne algoritemske zamenjave” vlog in skoraj 75 % anketiranih podjetij naj bi to tehnologijo sprejelo. Približno 50 % podjetij pričakuje, da bodo zaradi tega delovna mesta nastajala, medtem ko jih 25 % pričakuje upad delovnih mest.

In fact, technology is only sixth on the list of factors leading to net job creation or elimination. “Tukaj je tudi gospodarska rast, ki je trenutno precej mlačna, potem tudi trajnost in vzpon zelenega gospodarstva, spremembe v dobavnih verigah in spremembe v neki novi dobi ‘deglobalizacije’,” je dejala Zahidi.

The surveyed companies also show that the biggest driver of job creation is the green transition, the adoption of higher environmental, social and management standards. On the other hand, slowing economic growth is the main contributor to job losses.

Other factors that are also likely to cause job losses in the coming years include the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply shortages and the global cost of living crisis.